Integral Imprecise Probability Metrics
Siu Lun Chau, Michele Caprio, Krikamol Muandet
Abstract
Quantifying differences between probability distributions is fundamental to statistics and machine learning, primarily for comparing statistical uncertainty. In contrast, epistemic uncertainty -- due to incomplete knowledge -- requires richer representations than those offered by classical probability. Imprecise probability (IP) theory offers such models, capturing ambiguity and partial belief. This has driven growing interest in imprecise probabilistic machine learning (IPML), where inference and decision-making rely on broader uncertainty models -- highlighting the need for metrics beyond classical probability. This work introduces the integral imprecise probability metric framework, a Choquet integral-based generalisation of classical integral probability metrics to the setting of capacities -- a broad class of IP models encompassing many existing ones, including lower probabilities, probability intervals, belief functions, and more. Theoretically, we establish conditions under which IIPM serves as a valid metric and metrises a form of weak convergence of capacities. Practically, IIPM not only enables comparison across different IP models but also supports the quantification of epistemic uncertainty (EU) within a single IP model. In particular, by comparing an IP model with its conjugate, IIPM gives rise to a new class of epistemic uncertainty measures -- Maximum Mean Imprecision -- which satisfy key axiomatic properties proposed in the uncertainty quantification literature. We validate MMI through selective classification experiments, demonstrating strong empirical performance against established EU measures, and outperforming them when classical methods struggle to scale to a large number of classes. Our work advances both theory and practice in Imprecise Probabilistic Machine Learning, offering a principled framework for comparing and quantifying epistemic uncertainty under imprecision.
Ask about this paper
Your agent reads all of it.
Lune indexed this paper to the last equation, along with the top-tier papers that cite it. Ask a question and the answer quotes them.
Your agent calls
Luneget_paper_fulltext
Free to start. No credit card required.
Terminal
Install the CLIlune papers fulltext 4e20e19e-2553-4d54-b840-6266969f2cccCited by top-tier papers2
- Learning Credal Ensembles via Distributionally Robust OptimizationKaizheng Wang, Ghifari Adam Faza, Fabio Cuzzolin, Siu Lun Chau et al.ICML 2026 · 3 citations
- Efficient Credal Prediction through DecalibrationPaul Hofman, Timo Löhr, Maximilian Muschalik, Yusuf Sale et al.ICLR 2026 · 1 citation
Builds on13
- RKHS-SHAP: Shapley Values for Kernel MethodsSiu Lun Chau, Robert Hu, Javier González, Dino SejdinovicNeurIPS 2022 · 49 citations
- Credal Deep Ensembles for Uncertainty QuantificationKaizheng Wang, Fabio Cuzzolin, Shireen Kudukkil Manchingal, Keivan Shariatmadar et al.NeurIPS 2024 · 37 citations
- Explaining the Uncertain: Stochastic Shapley Values for Gaussian Process ModelsSiu Lun Chau, Krikamol Muandet, Dino SejdinovicNeurIPS 2023 · 35 citations
- Second-Order Uncertainty Quantification: A Distance-Based ApproachYusuf Sale, Viktor Bengs, Michele Caprio, Eyke HüllermeierICML 2024 · 34 citations
- Credal Learning TheoryMichele Caprio, Maryam Sultana, Eleni Elia, Fabio CuzzolinNeurIPS 2024 · 34 citations
Related papers
- Hierarchical Integral Probability Metrics: A distance on random probability measures with low sample complexityMarta Catalano, Hugo LavenantICML 2024 · 8 citations
- Is Epistemic Uncertainty Faithfully Represented by Evidential Deep Learning Methods?Mira Jürgens, Nis Meinert, Viktor Bengs, Eyke Hüllermeier et al.ICML 2024 · 35 citations
- Rethinking Aleatoric and Epistemic UncertaintyFreddie Bickford Smith, Jannik Kossen, Eleanor Trollope, Mark van der Wilk et al.ICML 2025
- Pitfalls of Epistemic Uncertainty Quantification through Loss MinimisationViktor Bengs, Eyke Hüllermeier, Willem WaegemanNeurIPS 2022 · 78 citations
- Conformalized Credal Set PredictorsAlireza Javanmardi, David Stutz, Eyke HüllermeierNeurIPS 2024 · 28 citations
