The Coverage Principle: How Pre-Training Enables Post-Training

Language models demonstrate remarkable abilities when pre-trained on large text corpora and fine-tuned for specific tasks, but how and why pre-training shapes the success of the final model remains poorly understood. Notably, although pre-training success is often quantified by cross entropy loss, cross entropy can be poorly predictive of downstream performance. Instead, we provide a theoretical perspective on this relationship through the lens of coverage, which quantifies the probability mass the pre-trained model places on high-quality responses and which is necessary and sufficient for post-training and test-time scaling methods like Best-of-N to succeed. Our main results develop an understanding of the coverage principle, a phenomenon whereby next-token prediction implicitly optimizes toward a model with good coverage. In particular, we uncover a mechanism that explains the power of coverage in predicting downstream performance: coverage generalizes faster than cross entropy, avoiding spurious dependence on problem dependent parameters such as the sequence length. We also study practical algorithmic interventions with provable benefits for improving coverage, including (i) model/checkpoint selection procedures, (ii) gradient normalization schemes, and (iii) test-time decoding strategies.