Pretraining Scaling Laws for Generative Evaluations of Language Models

Neural scaling laws have driven the field's ever-expanding exponential growth in parameters, data and compute. While scaling behaviors for pretraining losses and discriminative benchmarks are well established, generative benchmarks such as mathematical problem-solving or software engineering remain under-explored. We propose and evaluate three different pretraining scaling laws for fitting pass-at-$k$ on generative evaluations and for predicting pass-at-$k$ of the most expensive model using cheaper models. Our three scaling laws differ in the covariates used: (1) pretraining compute, (2) model parameters and pretraining tokens, (3) log likelihoods of gold reference solutions. First, we demonstrate that generative evaluations introduce new hyperparameters (in our setting, $k$) that act as a control lever for scaling behavior, modulating both the scaling law parameters and the predictability of performance. Second, we identify a stark difference in parameter stability: while the compute and parameters+tokens laws stabilize for only the last $\mathord{\sim}1.5\mathord{-}2.5$ orders of magnitude, the gold reference likelihood law is uniquely stable, converging across $\mathord{\sim}5$ orders. Third, in terms of predictive performance, we find all three scaling laws perform comparably, although the compute law predicts slightly worse for small $k$ and the gold reference law predicts slightly worse for large $k$. Finally, we establish a theoretical connection, proving that the compute scaling law emerges as the compute-optimal envelope of the parameters-and-tokens law. Our framework provides researchers and practitioners with insights and methodologies to forecast generative performance, accelerating progress toward models that can reason, solve, and create.