Relying on the Unreliable: The Impact of Language Models' Reluctance to Express Uncertainty
Kaitlyn Zhou, Jena D. Hwang, Xiang Ren, Maarten Sap
Abstract
As natural language becomes the default interface for human-AI interaction, there is a need for LMs to appropriately communicate uncertainties in downstream applications. In this work, we investigate how LMs incorporate confidence in responses via natural language and how downstream users behave in response to LM-articulated uncertainties. We examine publicly deployed models and find that LMs are reluctant to express uncertainties when answering questions even when they produce incorrect responses. LMs can be explicitly prompted to express confidences, but tend to be overconfident, resulting in high error rates (an average of 47%) among confident responses. We test the risks of LM overconfidence by conducting human experiments and show that users rely heavily on LM generations, whether or not they are marked by certainty. Lastly, we investigate the preference-annotated datasets used in post training alignment and find that humans are biased against texts with uncertainty. Our work highlights new safety harms facing human-LM interactions and proposes design recommendations and mitigating strategies moving forward.
Ask about this paper
Your agent reads all of it.
Lune indexed this paper to the last equation, along with the top-tier papers that cite it. Ask a question and the answer quotes them.
Cited by top-tier papers28
- Reasoning Models Better Express Their ConfidenceDongkeun Yoon, Seungone Kim, Sohee Yang, Sunkyoung Kim et al.NeurIPS 2025 · 77 citations
- Knowledge Boundary of Large Language Models: A SurveyMoxin Li, Yong Zhao, Wenxuan Zhang, Shuaiyi Li et al.ACL 2025 · 33 citations
- Don't Hallucinate, Abstain: Identifying LLM Knowledge Gaps via Multi-LLM CollaborationShangbin Feng, Weijia Shi, Yike Wang, Wenxuan Ding et al.ACL 2024 · 30 citations
- What's In My Human Feedback? Learning Interpretable Descriptions of Preference DataRajiv Movva, Smitha Milli, Sewon Min, Emma PiersonICLR 2026 · 27 citations
- LACIE: Listener-Aware Finetuning for Calibration in Large Language ModelsElias Stengel-Eskin, Peter Hase, Mohit BansalNeurIPS 2024 · 26 citations
Builds on23
- Language Models are Few-Shot LearnersTom B. Brown, Benjamin Mann, Nick Ryder, Melanie Subbiah et al.NeurIPS 2020 · 64,255 citations
- Training language models to follow instructions with human feedbackLong Ouyang, Jeffrey Wu, Xu Jiang, Diogo Almeida et al.NeurIPS 2022 · 24,707 citations
- Chain-of-Thought Prompting Elicits Reasoning in Large Language ModelsJason Wei, Xuezhi Wang, Dale Schuurmans, Maarten Bosma et al.NeurIPS 2022 · 22,562 citations
- Direct Preference Optimization: Your Language Model is Secretly a Reward ModelRafael Rafailov, Archit Sharma, Eric Mitchell, Christopher D. Manning et al.NeurIPS 2023 · 10,924 citations
- Measuring Massive Multitask Language UnderstandingDan Hendrycks, Collin Burns, Steven Basart, Andy Zou et al.ICLR 2021 · 7,905 citations
Related papers
- MetaFaith: Faithful Natural Language Uncertainty Expression in LLMsGabrielle Kaili-May Liu, Gal Yona, Avi Caciularu, Idan Szpektor et al.EMNLP 2025
- Perceptions of Linguistic Uncertainty by Language Models and HumansCatarina G. Belém, Markelle Kelly, Mark Steyvers, Sameer Singh et al.EMNLP 2024 · 6 citations
- Behavioral Indicators of Overreliance During Interaction with Conversational Language ModelsChang Liu, Qinyi Zhou, Xinjie Shen, Xingyu Bruce Liu et al.CHI 2026 · 4 citations
- Confidence Under the Hood: An Investigation into the Confidence-Probability Alignment in Large Language ModelsAbhishek Kumar, Robert Morabito, Sanzhar Umbet, Jad Kabbara et al.ACL 2024 · 9 citations
- Fostering Appropriate Reliance on Large Language Models: The Role of Explanations, Sources, and InconsistenciesSunnie S. Y. Kim, Jennifer Wortman Vaughan, Q. Vera Liao, Tania Lombrozo et al.CHI 2025 · 118 citations
