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Amortized Simulation-Based Inference in Generalized Bayes via Neural Posterior Estimation

Shiyi Sun, Geoff Nicholls, Jeong Lee

2026Year
1Citations

Abstract

Generalized Bayesian Inference (GBI) tempers a loss with a temperature β>0\beta>0 to mitigate overconfidence and improve robustness under model misspecification, but existing GBI methods typically rely on costly MCMC or SDE-based samplers and must be re-run for each new dataset and each β\beta-value. We give the first fully amortized variational approximation for the specific case of the tempered posterior family pβ(θ∣x)∝π(θ)p(x∣theta)βp_\beta(\theta\mid x) \propto \pi(\theta)p(x \mid\\theta)^\beta by training a single (x,β)(x,\beta)-conditioned neural posterior estimator qϕ(θ∣x,β)q_\phi(\theta \mid x, \beta) that enables sampling in a single forward pass, without simulator calls or inference-time MCMC. We introduce two complementary training routes: (i) synthesizes off-manifold samples (θ,x)∼π(θ)p(x∣θ)β(\theta, x) \sim \pi(\theta)p(x \mid \theta)^\beta and (ii) reweights a fixed base dataset π(θ)p(x∣θ)\pi(\theta)p(x \mid \theta) using self-normalized importance sampling (SNIS), where we show that the SNIS-weighted objective provides a consistent forward-KL fit to the tempered posterior with finite weight variance. Across four standard simulation-based inference (SBI) benchmarks—including the chaotic Lorenz–96 system—our β\beta-amortized estimator achieves competitive posterior approximations, in standard two-sample metrics, with non-amortized MCMC-based power-posterior samplers over a wide range of temperatures.

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