Amortized Simulation-Based Inference in Generalized Bayes via Neural Posterior Estimation
Shiyi Sun, Geoff Nicholls, Jeong Lee
Abstract
Generalized Bayesian Inference (GBI) tempers a loss with a temperature to mitigate overconfidence and improve robustness under model misspecification, but existing GBI methods typically rely on costly MCMC or SDE-based samplers and must be re-run for each new dataset and each -value. We give the first fully amortized variational approximation for the specific case of the tempered posterior family by training a single -conditioned neural posterior estimator that enables sampling in a single forward pass, without simulator calls or inference-time MCMC. We introduce two complementary training routes: (i) synthesizes off-manifold samples and (ii) reweights a fixed base dataset using self-normalized importance sampling (SNIS), where we show that the SNIS-weighted objective provides a consistent forward-KL fit to the tempered posterior with finite weight variance. Across four standard simulation-based inference (SBI) benchmarks—including the chaotic Lorenz–96 system—our -amortized estimator achieves competitive posterior approximations, in standard two-sample metrics, with non-amortized MCMC-based power-posterior samplers over a wide range of temperatures.
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