Likelihood-free MCMC with Amortized Approximate Ratio Estimators
Joeri Hermans, Volodimir Begy, Gilles Louppe
Abstract
Posterior inference with an intractable likelihood is becoming an increasingly common task in scientific domains which rely on sophisticated computer simulations. Typically, these forward models do not admit tractable densities forcing practitioners to make use of approximations. This work introduces a novel approach to address the intractability of the likelihood and the marginal model. We achieve this by learning a flexible amortized estimator which approximates the likelihood-to-evidence ratio. We demonstrate that the learned ratio estimator can be embedded in MCMC samplers to approximate likelihood-ratios between consecutive states in the Markov chain, allowing us to draw samples from the intractable posterior. Techniques are presented to improve the numerical stability and to measure the quality of an approximation. The accuracy of our approach is demonstrated on a variety of benchmarks against well-established techniques. Scientific applications in physics show its applicability.
Ask about this paper
Your agent reads all of it.
Lune indexed this paper to the last equation, along with the top-tier papers that cite it. Ask a question and the answer quotes them.
Cited by top-tier papers41
- On Contrastive Learning for Likelihood-free InferenceConor Durkan, Iain Murray, George PapamakariosICML 2020 · 149 citations
- Compositional Foundation Models for Hierarchical PlanningAnurag Ajay, Seungwook Han, Yilun Du, Shuang Li et al.NeurIPS 2023 · 137 citations
- Robust Neural Posterior Estimation and Statistical Model CriticismDaniel Ward, Patrick Cannon, Mark Beaumont, Matteo Fasiolo et al.NeurIPS 2022 · 79 citations
- Truncated proposals for scalable and hassle-free simulation-based inferenceMichael Deistler, Pedro J. Gonçalves, Jakob H. MackeNeurIPS 2022 · 76 citations
- All-in-one simulation-based inferenceManuel Glöckler, Michael Deistler, Christian Dietrich Weilbach, Frank Wood et al.ICML 2024 · 74 citations
Builds on1
Related papers
- Compositional simulation-based inference for time seriesManuel Glöckler, Shoji Toyota, Kenji Fukumizu, Jakob H. MackeICLR 2025
- Amortised Learning by Wake-SleepLi K. Wenliang, Theodore H. Moskovitz, Heishiro Kanagawa, Maneesh SahaniICML 2020 · 7 citations
- Multifidelity Simulation-based Inference for Computationally Expensive SimulatorsAnastasia Nastya Krouglova, Hayden R. Johnson, Basile Confavreux, Michael Deistler et al.ICLR 2026 · 17 citations
- Multi-fidelity Monte Carlo: a pseudo-marginal approachDiana Cai, Ryan P. AdamsNeurIPS 2022 · 9 citations
- Path-dependent Discrete Amortized InferenceTiago Silva, Esmeralda S. Whitammer, Salem LahlouICML 2026
