Mapping the Spiral of Silence: Surveying Unspoken Opinions in Online Communities

We often treat social media as a lens onto society. How might that lens distort the popularity of political and social viewpoints? We examine discrepancies between publicly posted and privately surveyed opinions within communities, contributing a measurement of the “spiral of silence” theory; the theory posits people are less likely to voice opinions when they believe they hold minority views, creating a reinforcing cycle where these opinions are expressed less. We surveyed members of politically-oriented Reddit communities about their willingness to post on contentious topics, yielding 439 responses across twelve subreddits. 72.1% of participants who perceive themselves in the minority remain silent and are half as likely to post compared to those who believe their opinion is in the majority. Community design factors, such as perceived diversity, are associated with less self-silencing. We provide recommendations for counteracting self-silencing at the community level (e.g., positive reinforcement, more transparent moderation). Overall, these results reveal gaps between online discourse and broader public opinion.