Scenario-independent Uncertainty Estimation for LLM-based Question Answering via Factor Analysis

Large language models (LLMs) demonstrate significant potential in various applications; however, they are susceptible to generating hallucinations, which can lead to the spread of online misinformation. Existing studies address hallucination detection by (1) employing reference-based methods that consult external resources for verification or (2) utilizing reference-free methods that mainly estimate answer uncertainty based on LLM's internal states. However, reference-based methods incur significant costs and can be infeasible for obtaining reliable external references. Besides, existing uncertainty estimation (UE) methods often overlook the impact of scenario backgrounds inherited from the query's lexical resources, leading to noise in UE. In almost all real-world applications, users care about the uncertainty concerning semantics or facts instead of the query's scenario information. Therefore, we argue that mitigating scenario-related noise and focusing on semantic information can yield a more desirable UE. In this paper, we introduce a plug-and-play scenario-independent framework to enhance unsupervised UE in LLMs by removing scenario-related noise and focusing on semantic information. This framework is compatible with most existing UE methods, as it leverages only the existing UE methods' outputs. Specifically, we design a scenario-specific sampling to paraphrase queries, maintaining their common semantics while diversifying the scenario distribution. Subsequently, to estimate the contribution of the common semantics, we design a factor analysis (FA) model to disentangle the UE score obtained from the given UE method into a combination of multiple latent factors, which represent the contribution of the common semantics and scenario-related noise. By solving the FA model, we decompose the impact of the most significant factor to approximate the uncertainty caused by the common semantics, thus achieving scenario-independent UE. Extensive experiments and analysis across multiple models and datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach.