Towards Harmonized Uncertainty Estimation for Large Language Models
Rui Li, Jing Long, Muge Qi, Heming Xia, Lei Sha, Peiyi Wang, Zhifang Sui
Abstract
To facilitate robust and trustworthy deployment of large language models (LLMs), it is essential to quantify the reliability of their generations through uncertainty estimation. While recent efforts have made significant advancements by leveraging the internal logic and linguistic features of LLMs to estimate uncertainty scores, our empirical analysis highlights the pitfalls of these methods to strike a harmonized estimation between indication, balance, and calibration, which hinders their broader capability for accurate uncertainty estimation. To address this challenge, we propose CUE (Corrector for Uncertainty Estimation): A straightforward yet effective method that employs a lightweight model trained on data aligned with the target LLM's performance to adjust uncertainty scores. Comprehensive experiments across diverse models and tasks demonstrate its effectiveness, which achieves consistent improvements of up to 60% over existing methods. Resources are available at https://github. com/O-L1RU1/Corrector4UE .
Ask about this paper
Your agent reads all of it.
Lune indexed this paper to the last equation, along with the top-tier papers that cite it. Ask a question and the answer quotes them.
Your agent calls
Luneget_paper_fulltext
Free to start. No credit card required.
Terminal
Install the CLIlune papers fulltext 499401f5-2958-4ed1-84fa-3124fcbb0d39Cited by top-tier papers4
- Decoupling Reasoning and Confidence: Resurrecting Calibration in Reinforcement Learning from Verifiable RewardsZhengzhao Ma, Xueru Wen, Boxi Cao, Yaojie Lu et al.ICML 2026 · 5 citations
- BaseCal: Unsupervised Confidence Calibration via Base Model SignalsHexiang Tan, Wanli Yang, Junwei Zhang, Xin Chen et al.ACL 2026 · 3 citations
- UNCERTAINTY-LINE: Length-Invariant Estimation of Uncertainty for Large Language ModelsRoman Vashurin, Maiya Goloburda, Preslav Nakov, Maxim PanovEMNLP 2025 · 1 citation
- Code-MUE: Measuring Code LLMs’ Uncertainty through Execution-Based Semantic Interaction GraphsXiaoning Ren, Yinxing Xue, Lei Ma, Yuheng HuangISSTA 2026
Builds on11
- Training language models to follow instructions with human feedbackLong Ouyang, Jeffrey Wu, Xu Jiang, Diogo Almeida et al.NeurIPS 2022 · 24,707 citations
- Can LLMs Express Their Uncertainty? An Empirical Evaluation of Confidence Elicitation in LLMsMiao Xiong, Zhiyuan Hu, Xinyang Lu, Yifei Li et al.ICLR 2024 · 867 citations
- Uncertainty Estimation in Autoregressive Structured PredictionAndrey Malinin, Mark J. F. GalesICLR 2021 · 439 citations
- Kernel Language Entropy: Fine-grained Uncertainty Quantification for LLMs from Semantic SimilaritiesAlexander Nikitin, Jannik Kossen, Yarin Gal, Pekka MarttinenNeurIPS 2024 · 197 citations
- Selective Question Answering under Domain ShiftAmita Kamath, Robin Jia, Percy LiangACL 2020 · 121 citations
Related papers
- Large Language Models Must Be Taught to Know What They Don't KnowSanyam Kapoor, Nate Gruver, Manley Roberts, Katie Collins et al.NeurIPS 2024 · 124 citations
- Addressing Pitfalls in the Evaluation of Uncertainty Estimation Methods for Natural Language GenerationMykyta Ielanskyi, Kajetan Schweighofer, Lukas Aichberger, Sepp HochreiterICLR 2026 · 10 citations
- ConfTuner: Training Large Language Models to Express Their Confidence VerballyYibo Li, Miao Xiong, Jiaying Wu, Bryan HooiNeurIPS 2025 · 43 citations
- From Sampling to Cognition: Modeling Internal Cognitive Confidence in Language Models for Robust Uncertainty CalibrationHao Li, Tao He, Jiafeng Liang, Zheng Chu et al.AAAI 2026
- How to Correctly Report LLM-as-a-Judge EvaluationsChungpa Lee, Thomas Zeng, Jongwon Jeong, Jy-yong Sohn et al.ICML 2026 · 24 citations
