gp2Scale: A Class of Compactly Supported Non-Stationary Kernels and Distributed Computing for Exact Gaussian Processes on 10 Million Data Points

Despite a large corpus of recent work on scaling up Gaussian processes, a stubborn trade-off between computational speed, prediction, and uncertainty quantification accuracy, and customizability persists. This is because the vast majority of existing methodologies exploit various levels of approximation that lower accuracy and limit the flexibility of kernel and noise-model designs --- an unacceptable drawback at a time when expressive non-stationary kernels are on the rise in many fields. Here, we propose a methodology we term gp2Scale that scales exact Gaussian processes to more than 10 million data points without relying on inducing points, kernel interpolation, or neighborhood-based approximations, and instead leverages the existing capabilities of a GP: its kernel design. Highly flexible, compactly supported, and non-stationary kernels lead to the identification of naturally occurring sparse structure in the covariance matrix, which is then exploited to compute the linear system solution and the log-determinant for training. We demonstrate our method's functionality on several real-world datasets and compare it with state-of-the-art approximation algorithms. Although we show superior approximation performance in many cases, the method's real power lies in its agnosticism toward arbitrary GP customizations --- core kernel design, noise, and mean functions --- and the type of input space, making it optimally suited for modern Gaussian process applications.