Explainable Subgraph Reasoning for Forecasting on Temporal Knowledge Graphs

Modeling time-evolving knowledge graphs (KGs) has recently gained increasing interest. Here, graph representation learning has become the dominant paradigm for link prediction on temporal KGs. However, the embedding-based approaches largely operate in a black-box fashion, lacking the ability to interpret their predictions. This paper provides a link forecasting framework that reasons over query-relevant subgraphs of temporal KGs and jointly models the structural dependencies and the temporal dynamics. Especially, we propose a temporal relational attention mechanism and a novel reverse representation update scheme to guide the extraction of an enclosing subgraph around the query. The subgraph is expanded by an iterative sampling of temporal neighbors and by attention propagation. Our approach provides human-understandable evidence explaining the forecast. We evaluate our model on four benchmark temporal knowledge graphs for the link forecasting task. While being more explainable, our model obtains a relative improvement of up to 20 $\%$ on Hits@1 compared to the previous best temporal KG forecasting method. We also conduct a survey with 53 respondents, and the results show that the evidence extracted by the model for link forecasting is aligned with human understanding.