ChaosNexus: A Foundation Model for ODE-based Chaotic System Forecasting with Hierarchical Multi-scale Awareness
Chang Liu, Bohao Zhao, Jingtao Ding, Yong Li
摘要
Foundation models have shown great promise in achieving zero-shot or few-shot forecasting for ODE-based chaotic systems via large-scale pretraining. However, existing architectures often fail to capture the multi-scale temporal structures and distinct spectral characteristics of chaotic dynamics. To address this, we introduce Chaos-Nexus, a foundation model for chaotic system forecasting underpinned by the proposed Scale-Former architecture. By processing temporal contexts across hierarchically varying patch sizes, ChaosNexus effectively captures long-range dependencies and preserves high-frequency fluctuations. To address heterogeneity across distinct systems, we integrate Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) layers into each ScaleFormer block and explicitly condition the final forecasts on a learned frequency fingerprint, providing the model with a global spectral view of the system. Extensive evaluations on over 9,000 synthetic systems demonstrate that ChaosNexus achieves superior fidelity in long-term attractor statistics while maintaining competitive point-wise accuracy. Furthermore, in real-world applications, it achieves a remarkable zero-shot mean error below 1°C for 5-day station-based weather forecasting. Codes are available at https://github. com/TomXaxaxa/ChaosNexus .
问问这篇 Paper
智能体会读完全文。
Lune 把这篇 Paper 索引到了每一个公式,引用它的顶会 Paper 也一样。你提问,回答直接引用原文。
它引用的顶会 Paper16
- FlashAttention: Fast and Memory-Efficient Exact Attention with IO-AwarenessTri Dao, Daniel Y. Fu, Stefano Ermon, Atri Rudra 等NeurIPS 2022 · 被引用 5,493 次
- iTransformer: Inverted Transformers Are Effective for Time Series ForecastingYong Liu, Tengge Hu, Haoran Zhang, Haixu Wu 等ICLR 2024 · 被引用 1,703 次
- A decoder-only foundation model for time-series forecastingAbhimanyu Das, Weihao Kong, Rajat Sen, Yichen ZhouICML 2024 · 被引用 601 次
- A Time Series is Worth 64 Words: Long-term Forecasting with TransformersYuqi Nie, Nam H. Nguyen, Phanwadee Sinthong, Jayant KalagnanamICLR 2023 · 被引用 536 次
- DeepSeekMoE: Towards Ultimate Expert Specialization in Mixture-of-Experts Language ModelsDamai Dai, Chengqi Deng, Chenggang Zhao, R. X. Xu 等ACL 2024 · 被引用 171 次
相关 Paper
- Zero-shot forecasting of chaotic systemsYuanzhao Zhang, William GilpinICLR 2025
- Moirai-MoE: Empowering Time Series Foundation Models with Sparse Mixture of ExpertsXu Liu, Juncheng Liu, Gerald Woo, Taha Aksu 等ICML 2025
- Context parroting: A simple but tough-to-beat baseline for foundation models in scientific machine learningYuanzhao Zhang, William GilpinICLR 2026 · 被引用 16 次
- True Zero-Shot Inference of Dynamical Systems Preserving Long-Term StatisticsChristoph Jürgen Hemmer, Daniel DurstewitzNeurIPS 2025 · 被引用 25 次
- SEMPO: Lightweight Foundation Models for Time Series ForecastingHui He, Kun Yi, Yuanchi Ma, Qi Zhang 等NeurIPS 2025 · 被引用 12 次
