On Agnostic PAC Learning in the Small Error Regime

Binary classification in the classic PAC model exhibits a curious phenomenon: Empirical Risk Minimization (ERM) learners are suboptimal in the realizable case yet optimal in the agnostic case. Roughly speaking, this owes itself to the fact that non-realizable distributions $\mathcal{D}$ are simply more difficult to learn than realizable distributions -- even when one discounts a learner's error by $\mathrm{err}(h^*_{\mathcal{D}})$, the error of the best hypothesis in $\mathcal{H}$ for $\mathcal{D}$. Thus, optimal agnostic learners are permitted to incur excess error on (easier-to-learn) distributions $\mathcal{D}$ for which $\tau = \mathrm{err}(h^*_{\mathcal{D}})$ is small. Recent work of Hanneke, Larsen, and Zhivotovskiy (FOCS 24) addresses this shortcoming by including $\tau$ itself as a parameter in the agnostic error term. In this more fine-grained model, they demonstrate tightness of the error lower bound $\tau + \Omega \left(\sqrt{\frac{\tau (d + \log(1 / \delta))}{m}} + \frac{d + \log(1 / \delta)}{m} \right)$ in a regime where $\tau>d/m$, and leave open the question of whether there may be a higher lower bound when $\tau \approx d/m$, with $d$ denoting $\mathrm{VC}(\mathcal{H})$. In this work, we resolve this question by exhibiting a learner which achieves error $c \cdot \tau + O \left(\sqrt{\frac{\tau (d + \log(1 / \delta))}{m}} + \frac{d + \log(1 / \delta)}{m} \right)$ for a constant $c \leq 2.1$, thus matching the lower bound when $\tau \approx d/m$. Further, our learner is computationally efficient and is based upon careful aggregations of ERM classifiers, making progress on two other questions of Hanneke, Larsen, and Zhivotovskiy (FOCS 24). We leave open the interesting question of whether our approach can be refined to lower the constant from 2.1 to 1, which would completely settle the complexity of agnostic learning.