Going Where, by Whom, and at What Time: Next Location Prediction Considering User Preference and Temporal Regularity

Next location prediction is a crucial task in human mobility modeling, and is pivotal for many downstream applications like location-based recommendation and transportation planning. Although there has been a large body of research tackling this problem, the usefulness of user preference and temporal regularity remains underrepresented. Specifically, previous studies usually neglect the explicit user preference information entailed from human trajectories and fall short in utilizing the arrival time of next location, as a key determinant on next location. To address these limitations, we propose a Multi-Context aware Location Prediction model (MCLP) to predict next locations for individuals, where it explicitly models user preference and the next arrival time as context. First, we utilize a topic model to extract user preferences for different types of locations from historical human trajectories. Second, we develop an arrival time estimator to construct a robust arrival time embedding based on the multi-head attention mechanism. The two components provide pivotal contextual information for the subsequent prediction. Finally, we utilize the Transformer architecture to mine sequential patterns and integrate multiple contextual information to predict the next locations. Experimental results on two real-world mobility datasets show that our proposed MCLP outperforms baseline methods.