Polynomial-Time Classical Simulation of Noisy Quantum Circuits with Naturally Fault-Tolerant Gates

We construct a polynomial-time classical algorithm that samples from the output distribution of noisy geometrically local Clifford circuits with any product-state input and single-qubit measurements in any basis. Our results apply to circuits with nearest-neighbor gates on an $O(1)\text{-D}$ architecture with depolarizing noise after each gate. Importantly, we assume that the circuit does not contain qubit resets or mid-circuit measurements. This class of circuits includes Clifford-magic circuits and Conjugated-Clifford circuits, which are important candidates for demonstrating quantum advantage using non-universal gates. Additionally, our results can be extended to the case of IQP circuits augmented with CNOT gates, which is another class of non-universal circuits that are relevant to current experiments. Importantly, these results do not require randomness assumptions over the circuit families considered (such as anticoncentration properties) and instead hold for every circuit in each class as long as the depth is above a constant threshold. This allows us to rule out the possibility of fault-tolerance in these circuit models. As a key technical step, we prove that interspersed noise causes a decay of long-range entanglement at depths beyond a critical threshold. To prove our results, we merge techniques from percolation theory and Pauli path analysis.