To Search or to Recommend: Predicting Open-App Motivation with Neural Hawkes Process

Incorporating Search and Recommendation (S&R) services within a singular application is prevalent in online platforms, leading to a new task termed open-app motivation prediction, which aims to predict whether users initiate the application with the specific intent of information searching, or to explore recommended content for entertainment. Studies have shown that predicting users' motivation to open an app can help to improve user engagement and enhance performance in various downstream tasks. However, accurately predicting open-app motivation is not trivial, as it is influenced by user-specific factors, search queries, clicked items, as well as their temporal occurrences. Furthermore, these activities occur sequentially and exhibit intricate temporal dependencies. Inspired by the success of the Neural Hawkes Process (NHP) in modeling temporal dependencies in sequences, this paper proposes a novel neural Hawkes process model to capture the temporal dependencies between historical user browsing and querying actions. The model, referred to as Neural Hawkes Process-based Open-App Motivation prediction model (NHP-OAM), employs a hierarchical transformer and a novel intensity function to encode multiple factors, and open-app motivation prediction layer to integrate time and user-specific information for predicting users' open-app motivations. To demonstrate the superiority of our NHP-OAM model and construct a benchmark for the Open-App Motivation Prediction task, we not only extend the public S&R dataset ZhihuRec but also construct a new real-world Open-App Motivation Dataset (OAMD). Experiments on these two datasets validate NHP-OAM's superiority over baseline models. Further downstream application experiments demonstrate NHP-OAM's effectiveness in predicting users' Open-App Motivation, highlighting the immense application value of NHP-OAM.