Dynamic Knowledge Graph based Multi-Event Forecasting

Modeling concurrent events of multiple types and their involved actors from open-source social sensors is an important task for many domains such as health care, disaster relief, and financial analysis. Forecasting events in the future can help human analysts better understand global social dynamics and make quick and accurate decisions. Anticipating participants or actors who may be involved in these activities can also help stakeholders to better respond to unexpected events. However, achieving these goals is challenging due to several factors: (i) it is hard to filter relevant information from large-scale input, (ii) the input data is usually high dimensional, unstructured, and Non-IID (Non-independent and identically distributed) and (iii) associated text features are dynamic and vary over time. Recently, graph neural networks have demonstrated strengths in learning complex and relational data. In this paper, we study a temporal graph learning method with heterogeneous data fusion for predicting concurrent events of multiple types and inferring multiple candidate actors simultaneously. In order to capture temporal information from historical data, we propose Glean, a graph learning framework based on event knowledge graphs to incorporate both relational and word contexts. We present a context-aware embedding fusion module to enrich hidden features for event actors. We conducted extensive experiments on multiple real-world datasets and show that the proposed method is competitive against various state-of-the-art methods for social event prediction and also provides much-need interpretation capabilities.