Off-policy Evaluation Beyond Overlap: Sharp Partial Identification Under Smoothness

Off-policy evaluation, and the complementary problem of policy learning, use historical data collected under a logging policy to estimate and/or optimize the value of a target policy. Methods for these tasks typically assume overlap between the target and logging policy, enabling solutions based on importance weighting and/or imputation. Absent such an overlap assumption, existing work either relies on a well-specified model or optimizes needlessly conservative bounds. In this work, we develop methods for no-overlap policy evaluation without a well-specified model, relying instead on non-parametric assumptions on the expected outcome, with a particular focus on Lipschitz smoothness. Under such assumptions we are able to provide sharp bounds on the offpolicy value, along with asymptotically optimal estimators of those bounds. For Lipschitz smoothness, we construct a pair of linear programs that upper and lower bound the contribution of the nooverlap region to the off-policy value. We show that these programs have a concise closed form solution, and that their solutions converge under the Lipschitz assumption to the sharp partial identification bounds at a minimax optimal rate, up to log factors. We demonstrate the effectiveness our methods on two semi-synthetic examples, and obtain informative and valid bounds that are tighter than those possible without smoothness assumptions.