MovieGraph-ToM: Evaluating Long-Range Theory of Mind in Large Language Models via Implicit Social-Causal Graphs

The capacity for social reasoning, particularly Theory of Mind (ToM), is a foundational prerequisite for aligning Large Language Models (LLMs) with human values. However, current evaluations are predominantly confined to simplistic, short-text scenarios, obscuring their true capabilities and potential failure modes in complex, long-range social dynamics. To address this deficit, we introduce MovieGraph-ToM, a large-scale benchmark for evaluating long-range ToM and social cognition within extended, multimodal narratives. We employ a "scaffold-and-probe" methodology, and we construct a ground-truth Social-Causal Graph offline, which maps the narrative's latent mental states and causal chains. During evaluation, the model is denied access to this graph and must reason directly from raw multimodal inputs. This decoupling forces genuine inference over superficial pattern matching. Reasoning is probed via a hierarchical questioning framework designed to differentiate spontaneous understanding from logical robustness. Our empirical results reveal systematic vulnerabilities in even state-of-the-art models. We identify a critical multiple-choice pitfall, where accuracy plummets against well-crafted distractors, and a stark "generative-discriminative divide," where models fail to construct coherent explanations for answers they correctly identify. These findings highlight a latent risk, as models that feign comprehension could lead to unpredictable and misaligned behaviors. MovieGraph-ToM thus offers a rigorous platform for assessing and advancing the robust social intelligence required for safely aligned AI systems.