Mining the Past with Dual Criteria: Integrating Three types of Historical Information for Context-aware Event Forecasting

Event forecasting requires modeling historical event data to predict future events, and achieving accurate predictions depends on effectively capturing the relevant historical information that aids forecasting. Most existing methods focus on entities and structural dependencies to capture historical clues but often overlook implicitly relevant information. This limitation arises from overlooking event semantics and deeper factual associations that are not explicitly connected in the graph structure but are nonetheless critical for accurate forecasting. To address this, we propose a dual-criteria constraint strategy that leverages event semantics for relevance modeling and incorporates a self-supervised semantic filter based on factual event associations to capture implicitly relevant historical information. Building on this strategy, our method, termed ITHI (Integrating Three types of Historical Information), combines sequential event information, periodically repeated event information, and relevant historical information to achieve context-aware event forecasting. We evaluated the proposed ITHI method on three public benchmark datasets, achieving state-of-the-art performance and significantly outperforming existing approaches. Additionally, we validated its effectiveness on two structured temporal knowledge graph forecasting dataset 1 .