Partitions and Ewens Distributions in element-free Probability Theory

This article redevelops and deepens the probability theory of Ewens and others from the 1970s in population biology. At the heart of this theory are the so-called Ewens distributions describing biolological mutations. These distributions have a particularly rich (and beautiful) mathematical structure. The original work is formulated in terms of partitions, which are special multisets on natural numbers. The current redevelopment starts from multisets on arbitrary sets, with partitions as a special form that captures only the multiplicities of multiplicities, without naming the elements themselves. This ‘element-free’ approach will be developed in parallel to the usual element-based theory. Ewens’ famous sampling formula describes a cone of (parametrised) distributions on partitions. Another cone for this chain is described in terms of new (element-free) multinomials. They are well-defined because of a novel ‘partitions multinomial theorem’ that extends the familiar multinomial theorem. This is based on a new concept of ‘division’, as element-free distribution, in terms of multisets of probabilities that add up to one.