MicroC-KT: Modeling Community Effect via Learning Micro-Environment for Evidence-Grounded Explainable Knowledge Tracing

Knowledge Tracing (KT) is essential for tracking students' evolving knowledge states and predicting their future performance. While current graph-based methods focus on exerciseconcept relations, they often overlook the inherent group structures among students. Similarly, emerging LLM-based approaches rely on individual histories, lacking the broader context of group references and contrastive evidence. As a result, existing individual-isolation paradigms fail to provide stable predictions and evidencebased explanations. To bridge this gap, we propose Micro-Community Knowledge Tracing (MicroC-KT), a framework that incorporates learning micro-environments to provide social-cognitive anchors for KT. MicroC-KT identifies latent learning communities via hypergraph modeling and generates dual-granular summaries to facilitate community matching and peer retrieval. By extracting contrastive group evidence, the model prompts an LLM to generate both accurate answer predictions and verifiable analysis reports. Experiments on four public datasets demonstrate that MicroC-KT significantly outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in predictive performance while providing more reliable and evidence-based explanations.