Graph Colouring Is Hard on Average for Polynomial Calculus and Nullstellensatz

We prove that polynomial calculus (and hence also Nullstellensatz) over any field requires linear degree to refute that sparse random regular graphs, as well as sparse Erdős-Rényi random graphs, are 3-colourable. Using the known relation between size and degree for polynomial calculus proofs, this implies strongly exponential lower bounds on proof size.