Performative Time-Series Forecasting

Time-series forecasting is a critical challenge in various domains and has witnessed substantial progress in recent years. Many real-life scenarios, such as public health, economics, and social applications, involve feedback loops where predictive models can trigger actions that influence the outcome they aim to predict, subsequently altering the target variable's distribution. This phenomenon, known as performativity, introduces the potential for 'self-negating' or 'self-fulfilling' predictions. Despite extensive studies on performativity in classification problems across domains, this phenomenon remains largely unexplored in the context of time-series forecasting from a machine-learning perspective.