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ICML2026顶会

ConFlux: Multivariate Time Series in Flux, One Unified Forecast in Confluence

Shiyu Wang, Yuchen Fang, Juntong Ni, Ziyi Zhang, Baichuan Mo, Xinyue Zhong, Chengxin Wang, Zhou Ye, Yang Xiang

出版方
2026年份

摘要

Real-world multivariate time series are inherently in flux: different variables evolve asynchronously and interact in complex, time-varying ways, yet accurate forecasting requires these dispersed signals to converge into a single unified prediction. This structural mismatch between dynamic, heterogeneous inputs and a unified forecasting objective poses a fundamental challenge for building general-purpose multivariate forecasting models, especially in zero-shot and large-scale settings. To this end, inspired by the idea that "all rivers run into the sea", we propose ConFlux, a general-purpose foundation model for multivariate time-series forecasting by learning to adaptively integrate cross-channel information under a unified forecasting objective. Specifically, ConFlux first reorders variables to reduce cross-variable entanglement, then aggregates adjacent variables into compact patches that can be processed by a Vision Transformer-style architecture. This design shortens the effective context, reduces attention complexity, and provides a unified token representation for pre-training and downstream tasks. Experiments on 25 public datasets show that ConFlux achieves state-of-the-art performance in zero-shot, fine-tuning, and from-scratch settings, while offering faster inference and lower memory usage.

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