RiskTeller: Predicting the Risk of Cyber Incidents

The current evolution of the cyber-threat ecosystem shows that no system can be considered invulnerable. It is therefore important to quantify the risk level within a system and devise risk prediction methods such that proactive measures can be taken to reduce the damage of cyber attacks. We present RiskTeller, a system that analyzes binary file appearance logs of machines to predict which machines are at risk of infection months in advance. Risk prediction models are built by creating, for each machine, a comprehensive profile capturing its usage patterns, and then associating each profile to a risk level through both fully and semi-supervised learning methods. We evaluate RiskTeller on a year-long dataset containing information about all the binaries appearing on machines of 18 enterprises. We show that RiskTeller can use the machine profile computed for a given machine to predict subsequent infections with the highest prediction precision achieved to date.