A Causal Target for Learning to Defer Under Hidden Confounding

Learning decision policies from confounded observational data is a challenging task in causal inference, as unobserved confounders can lead to biased or suboptimal actions when relying solely on machine learning models. A synergistic approach is learning to defer, which decides when to act itself and when to defer to a human expert with access to unobserved information. However, constructing the learning target, which defines the probability of choosing each action or deferral, remains a core challenge. To address this, we propose causal-target-based learning to defer (CTLD) framework, where the causal target is constructed from sharp bounds on potential outcomes. Specifically, the degree of overlap between these bounds determines the probability of deferral, while their relative positions and widths define the probabilities over actions. CTLD aligns model predictions with this causal target to make probabilistic decisions over actions and deferral. We present comprehensive theoretical guarantees for the learned policy and demonstrate the effectiveness of CTLD on synthetic and semi-synthetic datasets.