Multi-Head Spatio-Temporal Attention Mechanism for Urban Anomaly Event Prediction

Timely forecasting the urban anomaly events in advance is of great importance to the city management and planning. However, anomaly event prediction is highly challenging due to the sparseness of data, geographic heterogeneity (e.g., complex spatial correlation, skewed spatial distribution of anomaly events and crowd flows), and the dynamic temporal dependencies. In this study, we propose M-STAP, a novel Multi-head Spatio-Temporal Attention Prediction approach to address the problem of multi-region urban anomaly event prediction. Specifically, M-STAP considers the problem from three main aspects: (1) extracting the spatial characteristics of the anomaly events in different regions, and the spatial correlations between anomaly events and crowd flows; (2) modeling the impacts of crowd flow dynamic of the most relevant regions in each time step on the anomaly events; and (3) employing attention mechanism to analyze the varying impacts of the historical anomaly events on the predicted data. We have conducted extensive experimental studies on the crowd flows and anomaly events data of New York City, Melbourne and Chicago. Our proposed model shows higher accuracy (41.91% improvement on average) in predicting multi-region anomaly events compared with the state-of-the-arts.