Gateways to Tractability for Satisfiability in Pearl’s Causal Hierarchy

Pearl's Causal Hierarchy (PCH) is a central framework for reasoning about probabilistic, interventional, and counterfactual statements, yet the satisfiability problem for PCH formulas is computationally intractable in almost all classical settings. We revisit this challenge through the lens of parameterized complexity and identify the first gateways to tractability. Our results include fixed-parameter and XP-algorithms for satisfiability in key probabilistic and counterfactual fragments, using parameters such as primal treewidth and the number of variables, together with matching hardness results that map the limits of tractability. Technically, we depart from the dynamic programming paradigm typically employed for treewidth-based algorithms and instead exploit structural characterizations of well-formed causal models, providing a new algorithmic toolkit for causal reasoning. ACM Subject Classification Theory of computation → Design and analysis of algorithms Keywords and phrases Pearl's Causal Hierarchy, causal reasoning, parameterized complexity 1 1 Equivalently, Pr(X = contracted | do(Y = vaccinated)). We follow recent publications in the area [45, 9] and primarily employ the square-bracket notation.