Joint-Embedding Predictive Learning of Latent Market States in U.S. Equities
Simon Mahns, Randall Balestriero, Mahmoud Assran
Abstract
We investigate whether Joint-Embedding Predictive Architectures (JEPA) can learn useful representations of U.S. equity markets. We jointly train a permutation-invariant tokenizer that maps each trading day's unordered per-asset features to a fixed set of learned factor tokens, together with a temporal JEPA using masked prediction to obtain a compact daily market-state embedding. Our evaluations show that these embeddings are strongly associated with second-moment market structure (realized volatility, correlation concentration, effective factor dimensionality) and weakly associated with market direction. The embedding helps predict gradual recovery dynamics but not sudden stress onsets. Without any text supervision, latent regimes show statistically significant alignment with news-topic shifts.
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