Efficient Bayesian Inference from Noisy Pairwise Comparisons
Till Aczel, Lucas Theis, Roger Wattenhofer
Abstract
Evaluating generative models is challenging because standard metrics often fail to reflect human preferences. Human evaluations are more reliable but costly and noisy, as participants vary in expertise, attention, and diligence. Pairwise comparisons improve consistency, yet aggregating them into overall quality scores requires careful modeling. Bradley-Terry-based methods update item scores from comparisons, but existing approaches either ignore rater variability or lack convergence guarantees, limiting robustness and interpretability. We introduce BBQ, a Bayesian Bradley-Terry variant that explicitly models rater quality, downweighting or removing unreliable participants, and provides guaranteed monotonic likelihood convergence through an Expectation-Maximization algorithm. Empirical results show that BBQ provides efficient inference, well-calibrated uncertainty estimates, and more robust, interpretable rankings compared to baseline Bradley-Terry models, even with noisy or crowdsourced raters. This framework enables more reliable and cost-effective human evaluation of generative models.
Ask about this paper
Your agent reads all of it.
Lune indexed this paper to the last equation, along with the top-tier papers that cite it. Ask a question and the answer quotes them.
Builds on1
Related papers
- Who can we trust? LLM-as-a-jury for Comparative AssessmentMengjie Qian, Guangzhi Sun, Mark Gales, Kate KnillICML 2026 · 5 citations
- A Judge-Aware Ranking Framework for Evaluating Large Language Models without Ground TruthMingyuan Xu, Xinzi Tan, Jiawei Wu, Doudou ZhouICML 2026
- Don’t Pass@k: A Bayesian Framework for Large Language Model EvaluationMohsen Hariri, Amirhossein Samandar, Michael Hinczewski, Vipin ChaudharyICLR 2026 · 18 citations
- Robust AI Evaluation through Maximal LotteriesHadi Khalaf, Serena Wang, Daniel Halpern, Itai Shapira et al.ICML 2026 · 2 citations
- Distribution-Calibrated Inference Time Compute for Thinking LLM-as-a-JudgeHamid Dadkhahi, Firas Trabelsi, Parker Riley, Juraj Juraska et al.ICML 2026 · 2 citations
