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Beyond First-order Asymptotics in Sequential Mean Testing

VIKAS DEEP, Shubhada Agrawal

2026Year

Abstract

We revisit the problem of sequentially testing the mean of bounded distributions in a level-α\alpha power-one framework. We study a KLinf\mathrm{KL_{inf}}-based sequential test that is known to attain the information-theoretic lower bound on the expected stopping time with exact constants as α→0\alpha \to 0. Going beyond first-order asymptotics, we establish a central limit theorem (CLT) for the stopping time of this test. Our analysis proceeds in two steps. First, we prove a novel CLT for the KLinf\mathrm{KL_{inf}} statistic itself, characterizing its fluctuations around its deterministic linear growth. We then leverage this result to show that the stopping time, centered appropriately, and scaled by log⁡(1/α)\sqrt{\log(1/\alpha)}, converges in distribution to a Gaussian limit with an explicit variance. This yields a second-order characterization of an asymptotically optimal sequential test for bounded distributions. Finally, we present numerical experiments that corroborate our theoretical findings.

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