Anytime-valid, Bayes-assisted, Prediction-Powered Inference
Valentin Kilian, Stefano Cortinovis, Francois Caron
Abstract
Given a large pool of unlabelled data and a smaller amount of labels, predictionpowered inference (PPI) leverages machine learning predictions to increase the statistical efficiency of confidence interval procedures based solely on labelled data, while preserving fixed-time validity. In this paper, we extend the PPI framework to the sequential setting, where labelled and unlabelled datasets grow over time. Exploiting Ville's inequality and the method of mixtures, we propose predictionpowered confidence sequence procedures that are asymptotically valid uniformly over time and naturally accommodate prior knowledge on the quality of the predictions to further boost efficiency. We carefully illustrate the design choices behind our method and demonstrate its effectiveness in real and synthetic examples. * Equal contribution. Order decided by coin toss. 39th Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems (NeurIPS 2025).
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Cited by top-tier papers4
- GAAVI: Global Asymptotic Anytime Valid Inference for the Conditional Mean FunctionBrian Cho, Raaz Dwivedi, Nathan KallusICML 2026 · 2 citations
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- Semi-Supervised Hypothesis Testing by Betting on PredictionsYaniv Tenzer, Elad Tolochinksy, Yaniv RomanoICML 2026
- Prediction-Powered Risk Monitoring of Deployed Models for Detecting Harmful Distribution ShiftsGuangyi Zhang, Yunlong Cai, Guanding Yu, Osvaldo SimeoneICML 2026
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