Planning for untangling: predicting the difficulty of merge conflicts

Merge conflicts are inevitable in collaborative software development and are disruptive. When they occur, developers have to stop their current work, understand the conflict and the surrounding code, and plan an appropriate resolution. However, not all conflicts are equally problematic---some can be easily fixed, while others might be complicated enough to need multiple people. Currently, there is not much support to help developers plan their conflict resolution. In this work, we aim to predict the difficulty of a merge conflict so as to help developers plan their conflict resolution. The ability to predict the difficulty of a merge conflict and to identify the underlying factors for its difficulty can help tool builders improve their conflict detection tools to prioritize and warn developers of difficult conflicts. In this work, we investigate the characteristics of difficult merge conflicts, and automatically classify them. We analyzed 6,380 conflicts across 128 java projects and found that merge conflict difficulty can be accurately predicted (AUC of 0.76) through machine learning algorithms, such as bagging.