Counterfactual Reasoning for Retrieval-Augmented Generation

While Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) has advanced knowledgeintensive tasks, we identify a fundamental vulnerability: the Correlation Trap. Existing systems cannot distinguish causally decisive evidence from overwhelmingly correlated yet misleading information, leading to systematic failures. We introduce Counterfactual RAG (CF-RAG), a new framework that operationalizes causal reasoning to overcome this limitation. CF-RAG systematically generates and evaluates counterfactual queries to identify causally relevant distinctions, and employs a parallel arbitration mechanism to reconcile conflicting evidence without interference. On challenging benchmarks, CF-RAG substantially improves robustness against the Correlation Trap, achieving state-of-the-art performance while maintaining comparable efficiency to standard RAG models. 1