Should I Have Expressed a Different Intent? Counterfactual Generation for LLM-Based Autonomous Control
Amirmohammad Farzaneh, Salvatore D'oro, Osvaldo Simeone
Abstract
Large language model (LLM)-powered agents can translate high-level user intents into plans and actions in an environment. Yet after observing an outcome, users may wonder: What if I had phrased my intent differently? We introduce a framework that enables such counterfactual reasoning in agentic LLM-driven control scenarios, while providing formal reliability guarantees. Our approach models the closed-loop interaction between a user, an LLM-based agent, and an environment as a structural causal model (SCM), and leverages test-time scaling to generate multiple candidate counterfactual outcomes via probabilistic abduction. Through an offline calibration phase, the proposed conformal counterfactual generation (CCG) yields sets of counterfactual outcomes that are guaranteed to contain the true counterfactual outcome with high probability. We showcase the performance of CCG on a wireless network control use case, demonstrating significant advantages compared to naive re-execution baselines.
A recent example of such settings is given by AgentRAN
Ask about this paper
Your agent reads all of it.
Lune indexed this paper to the last equation, along with the top-tier papers that cite it. Ask a question and the answer quotes them.
Your agent calls
Luneget_paper_fulltext
Free to start. No credit card required.
Terminal
Install the CLIlune papers fulltext b215a0b0-617e-4422-a5dc-312f7dfac261Builds on5
- BERTScore: Evaluating Text Generation with BERTTianyi Zhang, Varsha Kishore, Felix Wu, Kilian Q. Weinberger et al.ICLR 2020 · 8,443 citations
- Language Models as Zero-Shot Planners: Extracting Actionable Knowledge for Embodied AgentsWenlong Huang, Pieter Abbeel, Deepak Pathak, Igor MordatchICML 2022 · 1,539 citations
- Conformal Language ModelingVictor Quach, Adam Fisch, Tal Schuster, Adam Yala et al.ICLR 2024 · 132 citations
- Gumbel Counterfactual Generation From Language ModelsShauli Ravfogel, Anej Svete, Vésteinn Snæbjarnarson, Ryan CotterellICLR 2025
- ReAct: Synergizing Reasoning and Acting in Language ModelsShunyu Yao, Jeffrey Zhao, Dian Yu, Nan Du et al.ICLR 2023
Related papers
- Counterfactual Planning for Generalizable Agents' ActionsJiarun Fu, Lizhong Ding, Qiuning Wei, Yuhan Guo et al.AAAI 2026
- Abstract Counterfactuals for Language Model AgentsEdoardo Pona, Milad Kazemi, Yali Du, David Watson et al.NeurIPS 2025 · 3 citations
- Cycle-of-Science: Reliable Reasoning through Counterfactual Verification for Agent Decision MakingRuojie Zhang, Wencheng Zhu, Peiyuan Jiang, dayong zhuICML 2026
- On the Eligibility of LLMs for Counterfactual Reasoning: A Decompositional StudyShuai Yang, Qi Yang, Luoxi Tang, Yuqiao Meng et al.ICLR 2026 · 9 citations
- Inference-Time Conformal Reasoning with Valid Factuality Control for Large Language ModelsTing Wang, Yuanjie Shi, Yan Yan, Huan ZhangICML 2026
