Learning Mixtures of Markov Chains with Quality Guarantees

A large number of modern applications ranging from listening songs online and browsing the Web to using a navigation app on a smartphone generate a plethora of user trails. Clustering such trails into groups with a common sequence pattern can reveal significant structure in human behavior that can lead to improving user experience through better recommendations, and even prevent suicides [LMCR14]. One approach to modeling this problem mathematically is as a mixture of Markov chains. Recently, Gupta, Kumar and Vassilvitski [GKV16] introduced an algorithm (GKV-SVD) based on the singular value decomposition (SVD) that under certain conditions can perfectly recover a mixture of L chains on n states, given only the distribution of trails of length 3 (3-trail). In this work we contribute to the problem of unmixing Markov chains by highlighting and addressing two important constraints of the GKV-SVD algorithm [GKV16]: some chains in the mixture may not even be weakly connected, and secondly in practice one does not know beforehand the true number of chains. We resolve these issues in the Gupta et al. paper [GKV16]. Specifically, we propose an algebraic criterion that enables us to choose a value of L efficiently that avoids overfitting. Furthermore, we design a reconstruction algorithm that outputs the true mixture in the presence of disconnected chains and is robust to noise. We complement our theoretical results with experiments on both synthetic and real data, where we observe that our method outperforms the GKV-SVD algorithm. Finally, we empirically observe that combining an EM-algorithm with our method performs best in practice, both in terms of reconstruction error with respect to the distribution of 3-trails and the mixture of Markov Chains.