Sampling-Free Uncertainty Quantification via Hidden State Dynamics in Language Models

Large language models (LLMs) demonstrate remarkable capabilities in various complex language tasks, yet they face significant reliability challenges, including factual inaccuracies and generated biases (Yao et al. 2024;Zhang et al. 2022;Hong et al. 2024). Uncertainty quantification (UQ) plays a pivotal role in assessing model trustworthiness, particularly for high-stakes applications. However, current UQ methods for LLMs encounter computational efficiency bottlenecks due to their reliance on extensive sampling or external model invocations. In this work, we introduce a novel, samplingfree uncertainty quantification framework centered on hidden layer representation analysis. Our method facilitates real-time uncertainty quantification by modeling hierarchical internal semantic dynamics during the generation process. Through comprehensive experiments on multiple QA datasets and diverse model scales, we show that our approach consistently outperforms existing uncertainty quantification techniques in distinguishing correct from incorrect generations. Our results reveal that analyzing the dynamic evolution of hidden states provides a potent and computationally efficient signal for uncertainty quantification, directly from the model's internal workings, surpassing methods that depend solely on output probabilities or approximations via multiple samples.