Causal discovery with endogenous context variables
Wiebke Günther, Oana-Iuliana Popescu, Martin Rabel, Urmi Ninad, Andreas Gerhardus, Jakob Runge
Abstract
Causal systems often exhibit variations of the underlying causal mechanisms between the variables of the system. Often, these changes are driven by different environments or internal states in which the system operates, and we refer to context variables as those variables that indicate this change in causal mechanisms. An example are the causal relations in soil moisture-temperature interactions and their dependence on soil moisture regimes: Dry soil triggers a dependence of soil moisture on latent heat, while environments with wet soil do not feature such a feedback, making it a context-specific property. Crucially, a regime or context variable such as soil moisture need not be exogenous and can be influenced by the dynamical system variables - precipitation can make a dry soil wet - leading to joint systems with endogenous context variables. In this work we investigate the assumptions for constraint-based causal discovery of context-specific information in systems with endogenous context variables. We show that naive approaches such as learning different regime graphs on masked data, or pooling all data, can lead to uninformative results. We propose an adaptive constraint-based discovery algorithm and give a detailed discussion on the connection to structural causal models, including sufficiency assumptions, which allow to prove the soundness of our algorithm and to interpret the results causally. Numerical experiments demonstrate the performance of the proposed method over alternative baselines, but they also unveil current limitations of our method.
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Cited by top-tier papers4
- Flow based approach for Dynamic Temporal Causal models with non-Gaussian or Heteroscedastic NoisesAbdellah Rahmani, Pascal FrossardNeurIPS 2025 · 3 citations
- TCD-Arena: Assessing Robustness of Time Series Causal Discovery Methods Against Assumption ViolationsGideon Stein, Niklas Penzel, Tristan Piater, Joachim DenzlerICLR 2026 · 1 citation
- When Causal Dynamics Matter: Adapting Causal Strategies through Meta-Aware InterventionsMoritz Willig, Tim Woydt, Devendra Singh Dhami, Kristian KerstingNeurIPS 2025
- Causal discovery for time series with endogenous context variablesOana-Iuliana Popescu, Wiebke Günther, Martin Rabel, Jakob RungeICML 2026
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- Discovering Mixtures of Structural Causal Models from Time Series DataSumanth Varambally, Yian Ma, Rose YuICML 2024 · 11 citations
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