Data Prophecy: Exploring the Effects of Belief Elicitation in Visual Analytics

Interactive visualizations are widely used in exploratory data analysis, but existing systems provide limited support for confirmatory analysis. We introduce PredictMe, a tool for belief-driven visual analysis, enabling users to draw and test their beliefs against data, as an alternative to data-driven exploration. PredictMe combines belief elicitation with traditional visualization interactions to support mixed analysis styles. In a comparative study, we investigated how these affordances impact participants’ cognition. Results show that PredictMe prompts participants to incorporate their working knowledge more frequently in queries. Participants were more likely to attend to discrepancies between their mental models and the data. However, those same participants were also less likely to engage in interactions associated with exploration, and ultimately inspected fewer visualizations and made fewer discoveries. The results suggest that belief elicitation may moderate exploratory behaviors, instead nudging users to be more deliberate in their analysis. We discuss the implications for visualization design.