CATS: Enhancing Multivariate Time Series Forecasting by Constructing Auxiliary Time Series as Exogenous Variables

For Multivariate Time Series Forecasting (MTSF), recent deep learning applications show that univariate models frequently outperform multivariate ones. To address the deficiency in multivariate models, we introduce a method to Construct Auxiliary Time Series (CATS) that functions like a 2D temporal-contextual attention mechanism, which generates Auxiliary Time Series (ATS) from Original Time Series (OTS) to effectively represent and incorporate inter-series relationships for forecasting. Key principles of ATS-continuity, sparsity, and variability-are identified and implemented through different modules. Even with a basic 2-layer MLP as the core predictor, CATS achieves state-of-the-art, significantly reducing complexity and parameters compared to previous multivariate models, marking it as an efficient and transferable MTSF solution. The code implementation is available at this link Recent research in MTSF with deep learning methods reveals a counter-intuitive trend: univariate models, which ignore inter-series relationships, often outperform their multivariate counterparts (