A Large-Scale Dataset for Short-Video Topic Peak Prediction and a Large Heterogeneous Graph Model

Short-video platforms have become a central part of digital content, with users rapidly engaging in various trending topics. Predicting the peak popularity of short-video topics is critical for understanding content dynamics and user behavior. This paper introduces the task of Short-Video Topic Peak Prediction (SVTPP) and proposes both a new dataset and an innovative method. We present the TopicVid dataset, designed to capture the peak trends of short-video topics across multiple platforms. The TopicVid dataset includes 7,701 topics, 58,539 users, and 96,936 videos, with data on views, comments, and shares. This dataset is the first to provide rich semantic information for short-video topic peak prediction, including content details, titles, and user interactions. We propose the Topic Large Graph Model (TLGM), a two-stage framework that integrates heterogeneous graph data with large language models. The TLGM model effectively analyzes the relationships within short-video topics to predict their peak popularity. Experimental results show that our method outperforms existing approaches for predicting short-video topic peaks. Our dataset and code is available at https://github.com/chensh911/TLGM.