Change point detection and inference in multivariate non-parametric models under mixing conditions
Carlos Misael Madrid Padilla, Haotian Xu, Daren Wang, Oscar Hernan Madrid Padilla, Yi Yu
Abstract
This paper studies multivariate nonparametric change point localization and inference problems. The data consists of a multivariate time series with potentially short range dependence. The distribution of this data is assumed to be piecewise constant with densities in a Hölder class. The change points, or times at which the distribution changes, are unknown. We derive the limiting distributions of the change point estimators when the minimal jump size vanishes or remains constant, a first in the literature on change point settings. We are introducing two new features: a consistent estimator that can detect when a change is happening in data with short-term dependence, and a consistent block-type long-run variance estimator. Numerical evidence is provided to back up our theoretical results.
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Cited by top-tier papers4
- Non-parametric Online Change Point Detection on Riemannian ManifoldsXiuheng Wang, Ricardo Augusto Borsoi, Cédric RichardICML 2024 · 6 citations
- Optimal Online Change Detection via Random Fourier FeaturesFlorian Kalinke, Shakeel Gavioli-AkilagunNeurIPS 2025 · 2 citations
- Change Point Localization and Inference in Dynamic Multilayer NetworksFan Wang, Kyle Ritscher, Yik Lun Kei, Xin Ma et al.ICLR 2026 · 1 citation
- Online Change Point Detection for Multivariate Inhomogeneous Poisson Processes Time SeriesXiaokai Luo, Haotian Xu, Carlos Misael Madrid Padilla, OSCAR HERNAN MADRID PADILLAICML 2026
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