Decision Aggregation under Quantal Response
Zhihuan Huang, Yichong Xia, Yuqing Kong
Abstract
The effectiveness of collective decision-making is often challenged by the bounded rationality and inherent stochasticity of individual agents. We investigate this by analyzing how to aggregate decisions from experts, each receiving a private signal about an unknown state. Assuming signals are conditionally independent and identically distributed, we depart from the fully rational paradigm and model expert behavior using quantal response—a stochastic choice model capturing bounded rationality. Within a minimax regret framework, we show that majority voting is the optimal robust aggregator when individual rationality falls below a certain threshold. Interestingly, such groups can outperform perfectly rational agents, as their decision randomness encodes weak but informative signals lost in deterministic behavior. We validate these findings using large language models (LLMs), which naturally exhibit quantal response via their temperature parameter. Aggregating moderately stochastic LLM outputs significantly improves accuracy on complex reasoning tasks, highlighting bounded rationality not as a limitation, but as a potential strength in collective intelligence.
Ask about this paper
Your agent reads all of it.
Lune indexed this paper to the last equation, along with the top-tier papers that cite it. Ask a question and the answer quotes them.
Your agent calls
Luneget_paper_fulltext
Free to start. No credit card required.
Terminal
Install the CLIlune papers fulltext 1e922907-a3c6-44c8-bc16-5faad48ee061Builds on4
- LLM Strategic Reasoning: Agentic Study through Behavioral Game TheoryJingru Jia, Zehua Yuan, Junhao Pan, Paul McNamara et al.NeurIPS 2025 · 23 citations
- Robust Decision Aggregation with Second-order InformationYuqi Pan, Zhaohua Chen, Yuqing KongWWW 2024 · 9 citations
- Rationality-Robust Information Design: Bayesian Persuasion under Quantal ResponseYiding Feng, Chien-Ju Ho, Wei TangSODA 2024 · 3 citations
- Robust Aggregation with Adversarial ExpertsYongkang Guo, Yuqing KongWWW 2025 · 2 citations
Related papers
- Beyond Majority Voting: LLM Aggregation by Leveraging Higher-Order InformationRui Ai, Yuqi Pan, David Simchi-Levi, Milind Tambe et al.ICML 2026 · 20 citations
- Online Mixture of Experts: No-Regret Learning for Optimal Collective Decision-MakingLarkin Liu, Jalal EtesamiNeurIPS 2025 · 2 citations
- Social Dynamics as Critical Vulnerabilities that Undermine Objective Decision-Making in LLM CollectivesChanggeon Ko, Jisu Shin, Hoyun Song, Huije Lee et al.ACL 2026 · 1 citation
- Multi-Agent Debate for LLM Judges with Adaptive Stability DetectionTianyu Hu, Zhen Tan, Song Wang, Huaizhi Qu et al.NeurIPS 2025 · 25 citations
- Best-of-Infinity: Asymptotic Performance of Test-Time LLM EnsemblingJunpei Komiyama, Daisuke Oba, Masafumi OyamadaICLR 2026 · 2 citations
