KAE-Informer: A Knowledge Auto-Embedding Informer for Forecasting Long-Term Workloads of Microservices

Accurately forecasting workloads in terms of throughput that is quantified as queries per second (QPS) is essential for microservices to elastically adjust their resource allocations. However, long-term QPS prediction is challenging in two aspects: 1) generality across various services with different temporal patterns, 2) characterization of intricate QPS sequences which are entangled by multiple components. In this paper, we propose a knowledge auto-embedding Informer network (KAE-Informer) for forecasting the long-term QPS sequences of microservices. By analyzing a large number of microservice traces, we discover that there are two main decomposable and predictable components in QPS sequences, namely global trend & dominant periodicity (TP) and low-frequency residual patterns with long-range dependencies. These two components are important for accurately forecasting long-term QPS. First, KAE-Informer embeds the knowledge of TP components through mathematical modeling. Second, KAE-Informer designs a convolution ProbSparse self-attention mechanism and a multi-layer event discrimination scheme to extract and embed the knowledge of local context awareness and event regression effect implied in residual components, respectively. We conduct experiments based on three real datasets including a QPS dataset collected from 40 microservices. The experiment results show that KAE-Informer achieves a reduction of MAPE, MAE and RMSE by about 16.6%, 17.6% and 23.1% respectively, compared to the state-of-the-art models.