ASPIRE: Air Shipping Recommendation for E-commerce Products via Causal Inference Framework

Speed of delivery is critical for the success of e-commerce platforms. Faster delivery promise to the customer results in increased conversion and revenue. There are typically two mechanisms to control the delivery speed - a) replication of products across warehouses, and b) air-shipping the product. In this paper, we present a machine learning based framework to recommend air-shipping eligibility for products. Specifically, we develop a causal inference framework (referred to as Air Shipping Recommendation or ASPIRE) that balances the trade-off between revenue or conversion and delivery cost to decide whether a product should be shipped via air. We propose a doubly-robust estimation technique followed by an optimization algorithm to determine air eligibility of products and calculate the uplift in revenue and shipping cost.