AutoXPCR: Automated Multi-Objective Model Selection for Time Series Forecasting

Automated machine learning (AutoML) streamlines the creation of ML models, but few specialized methods have approached the challenging domain of time series forecasting. Deep neural networks (DNNs) often deliver state-of-the-art predictive performance for forecasting data, however these models are also criticized for being computationally intensive black boxes. As a result, when searching for the "best" model, it is crucial to also acknowledge other aspects, such as interpretability and resource consumption. In this paper, we propose AutoXPCR - a novel method that produces DNNs for forecasting under consideration of multiple objectives in an automated and explainable fashion. Our approach leverages meta-learning to estimate any model's performance along PCR criteria, which encompass (P)redictive error, (C)omplexity, and (R)esource demand. Explainability is addressed on multiple levels, as AutoXPCR pro-vides by-product explanations of recommendations and allows to interactively control the desired PCR criteria importance and trade-offs. We demonstrate the practical feasibility AutoXPCR across 108 forecasting data sets from various domains. Notably, our method outperforms competing AutoML approaches - on average, it only requires 20% of computation costs for recommending highly efficient models with 85% of the empirical best quality.