Sampling Balanced Forests of Grids in Polynomial Time

We prove that a polynomial fraction of the set of k-component forests in the m × n grid graph have equal numbers of vertices in each component, for any constant k. This resolves a conjecture of Charikar, Liu, Liu, and Vuong, and establishes the first provably polynomial-time algorithm for (exactly or approximately) sampling balanced grid graph partitions according to the spanning tree distribution, which weights each k-partition according to the product, across its k pieces, of the number of spanning trees of each piece. Our result follows from a careful analysis of the probability a uniformly random spanning tree of the grid can be cut into balanced pieces. Beyond grids, we show that for a broad family of lattice-like graphs, we achieve balance up to any multiplicative (1 ± ε) constant with constant probability. More generally, we show that, with constant probability, components derived from uniform spanning trees can approximate any given partition of a planar region specified by Jordan curves. This implies polynomial-time algorithms for sampling approximately balanced tree-weighted partitions for lattice-like graphs. Our results have applications to understanding political districtings, where there is an underlying graph of indivisible geographic units that must be partitioned into k population-balanced connected subgraphs. In this setting, tree-weighted partitions have interesting geometric properties, and this has stimulated significant effort to develop methods to sample them.