Decision Focused Causal Learning for Direct Counterfactual Marketing Optimization

Marketing optimization plays an important role to enhance user engagement in online Internet platforms. Existing studies usually formulate this problem as a budget allocation problem and solve it by utilizing two fully decoupled stages, i.e., machine learning (ML) and operation research (OR). However, the learning objective in ML does not take account of the downstream optimization task in OR, which causes that the prediction accuracy in ML may be not positively related to the decision quality. Decision Focused Learning (DFL) integrates ML and OR into an end-to-end framework, which takes the objective of the downstream task as the decision loss function and guarantees the consistency of the optimization direction between ML and OR. However, deploying DFL in marketing is non-trivial due to multiple technological challenges. Firstly, the budget allocation problem in marketing is a 0-1 integer stochastic programming problem and the budget is uncertain and fluctuates a lot in real-world settings, which is beyond the general problem background in DFL. Secondly,