Stabilising Job Survival Analysis for Disability Employment Services in Unseen Environments

In Disability Employment Services (DES), an emerging problem is to make job survival analysis stable in unseen environments without prior knowledge of these environments. Existing survival analysis methods cannot adequately solve this problem since they assume that distribution of unseen data is similar to that observed during training. However, this assumption can be violated in practice where unanticipated events such as COVID19 and inflation can change the work and life patterns of people with disability. Models trained before the COVID19 pandemic may make unreliable job survival predictions in COVID19 or inflation situations. It is also costly and time consuming to frequently re-train and deploy the models. This paper proposes a stable survival analysis method for the DES sector without requiring prior knowledge of deployment environments. Latent representations are learned to capture non-linear relationships between relevant features and job survival time. Two reweighting stages are developed to remove censoring and conditional spurious correlations between irrelevant features and the survival outcome. The case study of Australian workers with disability shows that our method can make stable risk predictions. It can also help workers with disability determine the most effective skills for improvement to increase their job survival time. Further evaluations with public datasets show the promising stable performance of our method in other applications.